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Forecasting short-term real GDP growth in the euro area and Japan using unrestricted MIDAS regressions
Leboeuf, Maxime; Morel, Louis - 2014
In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area and Japan. This new tool, which uses unrestricted mixed-data sampling (U-MIDAS) regressions, allows an evaluation of the usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010403330
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The European Public Debt Refinancing Program - Why the ECB Quantitative Easing Should Envisage Euro-Zone Government Bonds
Minenna, Marcello - 2014
The credit risk exposure of the German banking system is growing again after the 2009 peak and its subsequent reduction. This column comments it through the lens of the Target2 net balances in connection with the capital flows experienced by the Eurozone (EZ) balance of payments. Several aspects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013047170
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How Can It Work? On the Impact of Quantitative Easing in the Eurozone
Saraceno, Francesco - 2016
How can the quantitative easing (QE) programme launched in March 2015 by the ECB be successful in the Eurozone (EZ)? What will be its impact on the member countries? And how will it relate to countries' fiscal policies? To address these questions, we use a simple extension of the three-equation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002135
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How Low Can Central Banks Go? The Banking Threshold to Negative Interest Rates
Berriel, Tiago - 2019
Abstract Negative interest rates policies (NIRP), usually depicted in economic textbooks as an impossibility due to the prospect of infinite demand for money, are now a reality in several countries due to different reasons. But while the ZLB has been surpassed when it comes to Central Banks, it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899581
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Real Wages and Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area
McCallum, Andrew H. - 2011
We use the Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) approach of Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005) to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks on wages and employment in the euro area. The use of a large data set comprising country, sectoral and euro area-wide data allows us to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117851
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Real Effects of the ECB's Quantitative Easing : A Housing Portfolio Channel
te Kaat, Daniel; Ma, Chang; Rebucci, Alessandro - 2021
We propose a new housing portfolio channel through which QE affects output. In response to QE, intermediaries rebalance portfolios from bonds to houses, lowering the return to saving and stimulating consumption and output. We study this channel empirically in a German housing boom without credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013238890
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Food price pass-through in the euro area : the role of asymmetries and non-linearities
Ferrucci, Gianluigi; Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca; … - 2010
commodity prices ; inflation ; non-linearities ; pass-through …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003971302
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Early exit from ECB bond purchase program could reduce GDP growth and inflation
Clemens, Marius; Gebauer, Stefan; Rieth, Malte - In: DIW economic bulletin 7 (2017) 49, pp. 533-540
volume, an early exit, and a faster exit from the program on output and inflation in the euro area. Model simulations showed … that economic growth and inflation rates would decrease in all three scenarios. However, the effects of the scenario with … particular, an early exit from the program should significantly affect inflation rates, an effect that the European Central Bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011750746
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The External Finance Premium in the Euro Area : A Useful Indicator for Monetary Policy?
Gelain, Paolo - 2010
ingredient to model. In fact, I found that the estimated premium is a very powerful predictor of inflation. It overcomes, in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013145340