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This note argues that the solutions to the euro-area crisis proposed by the EU governing institutions in cooperation with the IMF, based on further austerity and wage cuts, will worsen the crisis. They are unlikely to reduce both sovereign and external debt ratios of countries experiencing these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009500683
ingredient to model. In fact, I found that the estimated premium is a very powerful predictor of inflation. It overcomes, in … ; Euro Area External Finance Premium ; Financial Accelerator ; Bayesian Estimation ; Inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003972629
component explains much less of the variation in sectoral regional inflation rates and exhibits much less volatility than … and Sectoral Inflation ; Common Factor Models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003947456
ingredient to model. In fact, I found that the estimated premium is a very powerful predictor of inflation. It overcomes, in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013145340
This paper presents evidence on the lag between monetary policy actions and the response of inflation in the euro area … regime thereafter. Results based on alternative definitions of inflation persistence support these findings, although, they … suggest that a drop in German inflation persistence and a shift in the mean of inflation - particularly in Italy and France …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320116
This paper presents the blueprint of a new ECB multi-country model. The version documented in the following pages is estimated on euro area data. As a prelude to the country models, this version is meant to enhance the understanding of the main model mechanisms, enlarge the suite of area wide...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315342
This paper presents the blueprint of a new ECB multi-country model. The version documented in the following pages is estimated on euro area data. As a prelude to the country models, this version is meant to enhance the understanding of the main model mechanisms, enlarge the suite of area wide...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012098167
inflation and output play an important role. In this paper we illustrate how modern sticky-price dynamic stochastic general … distribution of the forecast, as well as various inflation risk measures that have been proposed in the literature. Finally, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003285769
forces. On the one side deviations from zero inflation allow the policy maker to smooth inefficient employment fluctuations … inflation targeting. Overall we find that the Ramsey planner deviates from full price stability and that an optimal rule targets … inflation the real economic activity alongside inflation. -- Optimal monetary policy ; labour market unionization ; threat …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003811855
& Monetary Union (EMU). The model includes both nominal and real frictions that have proven to be important in matching business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011347045