The quantity theory of money predicts a positive relationship between monetary growth and inflation over long-run horizons. However, in the short-run, transitory shocks to either money or inflation can obscure the inflationary signal stemming from money. The spectral analysis of time series...

Viele Menschen im Euroraum haben zunehmend das Gefühl, dass der allgemeine Kaufkraftverlust des Geldes sehr viel höher ist als die offiziell gemessenen Inflationsraten. So lag Umfrageergebnissen zufolge z. B. im ersten Quartal 2021 die gefühlte Inflation im Euroraum bei 4,5 %, während die...

This paper analyses the time series behavior of the components of the real exchange rates between the founding member states of the EMU before and after the start of the EMU. Various panel and univariate country-specific tests show that the levels of these components are typically random walks....

This study delves into the rationale behind the 2021 review of the monetary policy strategy of the Eurosystem and elaborates on the main elements of the new strategy and its implications for monetary policy-making going forward. The profound changes in the economic landscape that have taken...

This study analyzes the time series behavior of the real exchange rates based on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices and various of its sub-components for tradable and non-tradable goods and services between the member states of the European Monetary Union. Country pair specific tests show...

This paper documents five facts about inflation expectations in the euro area. First, individual inflation forecasts overreact to individual news. Second, the cross-section average of individual forecasts of inflation underreact to shocks initially, but overreacts in the medium term. Third,...

This study analyzes the time series behavior of real exchange rates between member states of the European Monetary Union. The analysis is based on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices and eight sub-components for tradable and non-tradable goods and services. Stationarity of the real exchange...

In this paper we gradually construct a monthly encompassing monetary model on the basis of its two constituting components: a money demand and a loan demand model. Each of the three models pays special attention to the intermediation role of banks by modelling the relation between the retail...

The paper investigates the macroeconomic and financial effects of oil prices shocks in the euro area since its creation in 1999, with a special focus on the recent slump. The analysis is carried out episode by episode, within a time-varying parameter framework, consistent with the view that "not...