We analyse whether financial integration between countries leads to converging or diverging business cycles using a dynamic spatial model. Our model allows for contemporaneous spillovers of shocks to GDP growth between countries that are financially integrated and delivers a scalar measure of...

In this paper, we highlight the role of global value chains in the synchronization of economic activity between countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the euro area. We start off by demonstrating that the degree of synchronization of the business cycles of CEE countries and their main...

We study the degree of business cycle similarity between the Central and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries and the Eurozone members. The special emphasis is put on the differences between countries that have already joined the European Union and those that are in different stages of...

The goal of this study is to analyze the evolution of government gross debt as a % of the GDP and government deficit as a % of the GDP across European countries. In particular, this study compares the evolution of government gross debt as a % of the GDP of European countries within and outside...

The main aim of this study is to analyze the evolution of public debts and general government deficits/surplus across European countries within and outside the monetary unification. In particular, this study compares the dynamics of public debts and general government deficits between European...

The synchronization of business cycles represents one of the conditions that countries have to fulfil to become part of an optimum currency area, as well as a condition for the efficient implementation of a common economicpolicy in these countries. This paper examines the extent to which Serbia...

I identify new patterns in countries' economic performance over the 2007-2014 period based on proximity through distance, trade, and finance to the US subprime mortgage and Eurozone debt crisis areas. To understand the causes of the cross-country variation, I develop an open economy model with...

All explorations of the future of the Euro show serious risks for its survival in the present form. The road map of the Five EU Presidents presented in 2015 is far from sufficient to reduce the risks of the Euro zone falling apart by Brexit type developments or new economic shocks. The EU...

In the immediate wake of the Great Recession we didn't see the disinflation that most models predicted and, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model that properly accounts for domestic and global factors. Such...

This paper proposes a novel approach, based on probit framework, towards measuring business cycle synchronization for 9 eurozone economies. We find strong cross-country synchronization in both business cycles and financial cycles. Moreover, financial synchronization dominates business cycle...