The economic recovery in the euro area remains moderate. While several sentiment indicators have improved considerably over the past few months, and therefore suggest that the recovery might gain some momentum, this has not yet been reflected in hard data, in particular not in the quarterly GDP...

Economic Recovery in the Euro Area has lost momentum in the second half of 2015. Due to dampening effects from the world economy and a marked increase in political uncertainty, a number of sentiment indicators also point downwards. Nevertheless, domestic demand increased rather strongly, while...

Economic activity in the Euro Area is gradually gaining grip in 2015. Sentiment indicators suggest that the current - rather moderate - recovery will prevail over the second half of the year. The upswing is expected to broaden and to be increasingly driven by domestic forces. It is supported by...

The world economy seems to have stabilized in the first months of the year. The underlying growth dynamics, however, remain weak although we expect growth to accelerate somewhat going forward. This year, global output (at PPP exchange rates) will expand by 3.1 percent, which is close to last...

Der Euroraum steckt in einem Dilemma zwischen ordnungspolitischen Anforderungen an eine langfristig stabile Währung auf der einen Seite und systemischen Risiken bei Einhaltung dieser Anforderungen auf der anderen Seite. Dieses Dilemma hat Anlass für Spekulationen gegen einzelne Staaten des...

Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...