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changes in inventories. We then present evidence of the importance of cross border production chains for the economies of CEE … countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the euro area. We start off by demonstrating that the degree of … synchronization of the business cycles of CEE countries and their main trade partners from the euro area has increased in recent years …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315647
In this paper we look at business cycles similarities between CEE countries and the euro area. Particularly, we uncover …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081633
We analyze business cycle convergence in the EU by focusing on the decoupling vs. convergence hypothesis for central, eastern and south eastern Europe (CESEE). In a nutshell, we fnd that business cycles in CESEE have decoupled considerably from the euro area (EA) during the financial crisis in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064345
Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and the euro area. We decompose output movements into the contributions of four … wedges. Our results indicate that business cycles in the CEE countries do differ from those observed in the euro area, even … importance of the intra- and intertemporal wedges, which account for a larger proportion of output fluctuations in the CEE region …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076666
Within currency unions, the conventional wisdom is that there should be a high degree of macroeconomic synchronicity between the constituent parts of the union. But this conjecture has never been formally tested by comparing sample of monetary unions with a control sample of countries that do...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017299
This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503567
In structural vector autoregressive models of United States and euro area manufacturing, we use sign restrictions to identify shocks that alter the frictions to Chinese supply chain trade. We find a quantitatively significant role of such shocks for the decline of US manufacturing output at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459723
I identify new patterns in countries' economic performance over the 2007-2014 period based on proximity through distance, trade, and finance to the US subprime mortgage and Eurozone debt crisis areas. To understand the causes of the cross-country variation, I develop an open economy model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975657
We analyze whether financial integration between countries leads to converging or diverging business cycles using a dynamic spatial model. Our model allows for contemporaneous spillovers of shocks to GDP growth between countries that are financially integrated and delivers a scalar measure of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842362
The paper reviews adjustment dynamics in the EMU on the basis of estimated DSGE models for four large EA Member States (DE, FR, IT, ES). We compare the response of the four countries to identical shocks and find a particularly strong response of employment and wages in ES, a high sensitivity of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012268789