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Mind the gap : forecasting euro-area output gaps with machine learning
Sofianos, Emmanouil; Gkonkas, Periklēs; Papadimitriou, … - In: Applied economics letters 29 (2022) 19, pp. 1824-1828
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013412312
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Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area : an empirical assessment
Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - In: Journal of forecasting 34 (2015) 7, pp. 533-542
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011390448
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Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area -- an empirical assessment
Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - 2014
Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010248220
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Mind the Output Gap : The Disconnect of Growth and Inflation During Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area
Gross, Marco - 2017
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between output, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the co-efficient in the Phillips curve on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963916
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Understanding inflation dynamics in the Euro Area : deviants and commonalities across member countries
Amberger, Johanna; Fendel, Ralf - In: Empirica : journal of european economics 44 (2017) 2, pp. 261-293
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011782897
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Potential output and fiscal rules in a monetary union under asymmetric information - 2nd ed
Marattin, Luigi; Meraglia, Simone - 2016 - 2nd edition
We analyze fiscal rules within a Monetary Union in the presence of (i) asymmetric information on member states' potential output and (ii) bail-out among member states. The first-best deficit is contingent on the cycle, that is, on member states' output gap. In the presence of asymmetric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011705510
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Measuring the natural rates of interest in Germany and Italy
Bystrov, Victor - In: Central European journal of economic modelling and … 10 (2018) 4, pp. 333-353
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012294400
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Measuring the natural rates of Interest in Germany and Italy
Bystrov, Victor - 2018
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174332
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How informative are real time output gap estimates in Europe?
Kangur, Alvar; Kirabaeva, Koralai; Natal, Jean-Marc; … - 2019
useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103755
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Potential output and fiscal rules in a monetary union under asymmetric information
Marattin, Luigi; Meraglia, Simone - 2015
We analyze fiscal rules within a Monetary Union in the presence of (i) asymmetric information about member states' potential output and, therefore, output gap and (ii) bail-out among member states. In our framework, bail-out lowers the scope for signalling (discrimination) by member states...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011714310