The euro-area sovereign debt crisis is receding. Europe is on a recovery path, growth is broad-based and unemployment is falling. One after the other, countries hit hardest by the crisis are exiting their adjustment programmes. However, debt remains high in most countries and future debt crises...

We find evidence of neglected risk during sovereign debt expansions (DE), by analyzing the sovereign credit market for both crisis and noncrisis Eurozone countries from 2002-2017. We show that whereas DE predicts increased default probability, large DE predict negative future risk premia. Using...

The euro-area sovereign debt crisis is receding. Europe is on a recovery path, growth is broad-based and unemployment is falling. One after the other, countries hit hardest by the crisis are exiting their adjustment programmes. However, debt remains high in most countries and future debt crises...