Recently introduced measure for Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) seems to have a role to play in forecasting out-of-sample values for the future real economic activity both for the euro area and the UK economies in the monthly data from 1997-2016. Inclusion of EPU measures either for the US, UK...

During the pre-EMU period changes in real effective exchange rate or faster-than-trading-partners growth rates Granger caused changes in trade balance in most of the EMU-12 countries. However, our data driven article provides evidence that after the adoption of euro, these Granger causalities...