government bonds to derive expected inflation rates and the corresponding inflation risk premia, in the euro area and in the … factors and one inflation factor; the model provides substantial information related to expected inflation and inflation risk … market and economic outlook in the United States and by news on inflation in the euro area; this preliminary results can be …

government bonds to derive expected inflation rates and inflation risk premia, in the euro area and in the US. Maximum likelihood … which can be interpreted as two real factors and one inflation factor. These provide important information on expected … inflation and inflation risk premia. The results highlight some striking differences between the euro area and the US. In the US …

We investigate drivers of Euro area inflation dynamics using a panel of regional Phillips curves and identify long …-run inflation expectations by exploiting the crosssectional dimension of the data. Our approach simultaneously allows for the … inclusion of country-specific inflation and unemployment-gaps, as well as time-varying parameters. Our preferred panel …

We jointly estimate the natural rate of interest, the natural rate of unemployment, expected inflation, and potential …-variation in (i) the data-generation process for inflation, which we capture via a time-varying parameters specification for the … Phillips curve portion of the model; and (ii) the volatilities of disturbances to inflation and cyclical (log) output, which we …

We assess whether euro area inflation expectations, as measured by break-even inflation rates (BEIRs), have remained … illiquidity or demand-supply imbalances, but not reflecting genuine inflation expectations and inflation risk premia. We estimate … a bivariate VAR with short-term and long-term BEIRs, allowing for measurement noise in both. Anchoring of inflation …