-term interest rate into an expected inflation and an ex-ante real interest rate component. The latter may be a useful indicator of … rate series and the stationary component of the real interest rate is estimated and shocks to expected inflation and the ex …-ante real rate are identified using the long-run restriction that only shocks to expected inflation have long-run effects on the …

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. While this statement is widely accepted in terms of a long-run relationship, the … quantity theory has been made operational also for the short-run dynamics of inflation by so-called Pstar models. An error … inflation. The response of the HICP is strongly positive. Other factors such as raw material prices and unit labor costs also …

The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation … expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission … estimates of the New Keynesian inflation model presented here underscore the importance of inflation expectations for the short …

The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation … expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission … estimates of the New Keynesian inflation model presented here underscore the importance of inflation expectations for the short …

modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by utilizing weights that minimize the variance of the out-of-sample forecast … errors of the area-wide target variable. In an out-of-sample forecast experiment we find that our optimal pooling of … information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. -- Forecasting ; aggregation …