Increasingly many central banks announce likely paths for future policy rates. Recent experience suggest that market forward rates can differ substantially from those announced. Models commonly adopted in policy analysis ignore such differences. This paper studies a simple model that can capture...

Chapter 1 Introduction -- Chapter 2 Efficient markets -- Chapter 3 Equity premium -- Chapter 4 The dividend ratio model -- Chapter 5 Bond valuation -- Chapter 6 Yield curves -- Chapter 7 Term structure models -- Chapter 8 Real estate market -- Chapter 9 Derivative securities -- Chapter 10...

Credit risk models should reflect the observation that the relevant value of collateral is generally not the average value of the asset over all possible states of nature. In most cases, the relevant value of collateral for the lender is its secondary market value in bad states of nature, where...

We assess whether the euro had an impact first on the degree of integration of European financial markets, and, second, on the euro area term structure. We propose two methodologies to measure integration: one relies on time-varying GARCH correlations, and the other one on a regression...

To date the cointegrating properties and the regime-switching behavior of the term structure are two separate strands of the literature. This paper integrates these lines of research and introduces regime shifts into a cointegrated VAR model. We argue that the short run dynamics of the...

This chapter reviews some of the academic literature that links nominal and real term structures with the macroeconomy. The main conclusion is that none of our models is consistent with basic properties of nominal yields. It is difficult to explain the average shape of the nominal yield curve,...