The paper presents an overview of several studies about the credibility of the European Monetary System (EMS). These studies compare different credibility indicators in terms of their ability to detect exchange rate crises in a target zone. Marginal credibility seems to be the best measure for...

This paper provides some new evidence on the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). We differ from previous studies in the literature in three main respects. First, our main contribution is the use of several credibility indicators, some of which...

We provide some new evidence on the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System. To that end, we use of several credibility indicators, analysing the complete EMS history. We also compare the prediction qualities of the different indicators, and apply them to the...