Monetary conditions and economic activity in the euro area. With a VAR model, we show that the economies of the euro area are strongly dependent on the monetary conditions (short term interest rate, exchange rate). In the long-run, the industrial activity of the area enters in a co-integrating...

From a parsimonious model of the euro zone, we consider a VAR model. The influence of the various structural economic shocks can then be simulated. The results are in conformity with the lessons of the economic theory and show, in particular, that the activity of the euro zone is very sensitive...