The aim of this note is to provide an overview of various measures of "excess liquidity", which can be defined as the deviation of the actual stock of money from an estimated equilibrium level. Given their dynamic nature, the excess liquidity measures under review are - in the light of long and...

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) based on predictive likelihoods provides a framework that allows for the estimation of inclusion probabilities of a particular...

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)based on predictive likelihoods provides a framework that allows for the estimation of inclusion probabilities of a particular...

This paper assesses the performance of monetary indicators as well as of a large range of economic and financial indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 considering standard bivariate forecasting models, factor...

Mit dem Übergang zu einer gemeinsamen Währung in Europa stellt sich die Frage, ob die Europäische Zentralbank eine Politik der Geldmengensteuerung betreiben kann. Dies erfordert die Existenz einer stabilen Geldnachfragefunktion na¤ch dem Übergang zu einer Europäischen Währungsunion. In...

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and Canada for data from the 1960s up to the present. Our...

In this paper we analyze the money demand functions of the four largest EMU countries and of the four-country (EMU-4) aggregate. We identify reasonable and stable money demand relationships for Germany, France and Spain as well as the EMU-4 aggregate. For the case of Italy, results are less...