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The COVID-19 crisis has affected economic sectors very heterogeneously, with possible risks for permanent losses in some sectors. This paper presents a sectoral-level, bottom- up method to estimate euro area potential outputin order to assess the impact of the crisis on it. The estimates are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013367033
We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103755
This paper assesses the statistical reliability of different measures of the output gap - the multivariate Hodrick-Prescott Filter, the multivariate unobserved components method and the structural vector autoregressive model - in the Euro area. Three criteria are used: the consistency of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015317360
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011390448
Using a small Bayesian dynamic factor model of the euro area we estimate the deviations of output from its trend that are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981025
We estimate the euro area output gap by applying the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a large Bayesian vector autoregression. Our approach incorporates multivariate information through the inclusion of a wide range of variables in the analysis and addresses data issues associated with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013350551
We estimate the euro area output gap by applying the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a large Bayesian vector autoregression. Our approach incorporates multivariate information through the inclusion of a wide range of variables in the analysis and addresses data issues associated with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014078099
This paper builds an unobserved components model that combines a multivariate filter approach with a Cobb-Douglas production function. This combination allows potential output estimates to incorporate more economic structure than the traditional production function approach, while retaining the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243813
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003412229
The sovereign debt crisis triggered a process of reforms in European economic governance that pushed for technocratic handling of budget decisions following standardized procedures, target measures, and indicators for fiscal monitoring. This shift, aimed at producing more stability and less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015081045