This paper presents a new approach for analysing the recent development of EMU sovereign bond spreads. Based on a GARCH-in-mean model originally used in the exchange rate target zone literature, spreads are decomposed into a risk premium, an expected loss component and a liquidity premium....

Der Beitrag analysiert die inner-europäischen Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte auf der Grundlage der Theorie der optimalen Währungsräume. Wir zeigen, dass die deutsche Wiedervereinigung nicht nur zur EWS-Krise 1992/93 führte, sondern auch der Ursprung der derzeitigen europäischen...

We study how credit supply shocks in the US, the euro area and Japan are transmitted to other economies. We use the recently-developed GVAR approach to model financial variables jointly with macroeconomic variables in 33 countries for the period 1983-2009. We experiment with inter-country links...

This paper tests whether the exchange rates of the Czech koruna, the Hungarian forint, and the Polish zloty were anchored by market expectations concerning their euro locking rates. First, the process of the exchange rate is derived as a function of the following factors: (i) latent exchange...

This paper examines the association between trade and financial linkages among European countries. We find that, with the introduction of the euro, trade imbalances among euro area members widened considerably, even after allowing for permanent asymmetries in trade competitiveness within pairs...

This paper considers the nature and the distribution of trade and FDI effects of a potential enlargement of the European Monetary Union (EMU) to the 10 countries that obtained EU membership in 2004. One-way and two-way error component gravity models are estimated using a data set of unbalanced...

Unser wichtigstes Anliegen in dem vorliegenden Beitrag ist nicht die Prognose der zukünftigen Entwicklung der Europäischen Union, sondern die Erhellung der Optionen und Handlungsalternativen, vor denen die Union steht. Dazu gehört auch eine Diskussion der Frage, wie sie in die gegenwärtige...

We assess monetary convergence preceding the implementation of the European Monetary Union (EMU) through Kalman filtering estimates of the risk premium of eleven forward exchange rates of European and non-European currencies. Since all participating currencies are in effect identical from...

We assess whether the euro had an impact first on the degree of integration of European financial markets, and, second, on the euro area term structure. We propose two methodologies to measure integration: one relies on time-varying GARCH correlations, and the other one on a regression...

This paper analyses cross-border contagion in a sample of European banks from January 1994 to January 2003. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate the number of banks in a given country that experience a large shock on the same day (“coexceedances”) as a function of variables measuring...