In this paper, we map the process of synchronization of the Visegrad Four within the framework of the European Union using the wavelet techniques. In addition, we show that the relationship of output and key macroeconomic indicators is dynamic and varies over time and across frequencies. We...

In this paper, we map the process of synchronization of the Visegrad Four within the framework of the European Union using wavelet techniques. We show that the relationship of among countries is dynamic and that it varies over time and across frequencies. We study the synchronization applying...

This paper estimates forward-looking Taylor rules for the euro area. Using the asymmetries in inflation and cyclical output developments across countries, we investigate the adequacy of the single monetary policy for each of the EuropeanMonetary Union (EMU) member countries. Notable differences...

In addition to quantitative assessment of economic growth using econometric models, business cycle analyses have been proved to be helpful to practitioners in order to assess current economic conditions or to anticipate upcoming fluctuations. In this paper, we focus on the acceleration cycle in...

We show that an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the specificities of the day to day monitoring of economic developments such as ragged edges, mixed frequencies and data revisions is a good tool to forecast the Euro area recessions in real time. We...

In this paper we develop a mixed frequency dynamic factor model featuring stochastic shifts in the volatility of both the latent common factor and the idiosyncratic components. We take a Bayesian perspective and derive a Gibbs sampler to obtain the posterior density of the model parameters. This...

In this paper we propose a new real-time forecasting model for euro area GDP growth, D€STINY, which attempts to bridge the existing gap in the literature between large- and small-scale dynamic factor models. By adopting a disaggregated modelling approach, D€STINY uses most of the information...

This study investigates the asymmetric unemployment-output tradeoff in the Eurozone. Building upon the framework of an augmented Okun's law, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) modelling reveals that the nature of Okun's law is asymmetric. For the Eurozone economies, the...

Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low inthe euro area. Based on an augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that thisphenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily causedby a remarkable persistence of inflation,...

GDP, the key statistics describing the state of the economy, is collected at low frequency, typically on a quarterly basis, and released with a substantial lag. The goal of this paper is to have the most timely and accurate idea about the current real economic activity, measured by the growth...