We introduce a non-linear model to study the adjustment of fiscal policy variables in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain over the last 50 years, based on endogenously estimated budget deficit-to-GDP thresholds, which vary with fiscal disequilibria, the economic cycle and financial market...

Euro Area member states have agreed to introduce a structural budget balance target to their national legislation (Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance). However, there exists no commonly agreed methodology to calculate this macroeconomic indicator. This report presents the...

We examine the impact of four factors on the fiscal policies of the euro-area countries over the last two decades: the state of public finances, the European fiscal rules, cyclical conditions and general elections. We rely on information actually available to policy-makers at the time of...

The Swiss debt brake is a fiscal rule at central government level which aims at stabilizing debt. However, business cycle fluctuations are also accounted for. This paper discusses criticism of the debt brake that it cannot feasibly simultaneously achieve either anti-cyclical or sustainable...

We estimate spillover effects of a fiscal shock in one member country in the euro area on outputs of the rest of the members, using a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model. We compare the effects of a domestic fiscal shock with those of a similar size area-wide shock expressed as a weighted...

A number of novelties have emerged in the study of the discretionary fiscal policy within the Euro area during the last decade. Among the others, the availability of up-to-date information on fiscal indicators for the years following the Great Recession, the introduction of cutting-edge...

We examine the impact of four factors on the fiscal policies of the euro-area countries over the last two decades: the state of public finances, the European fiscal rules, cyclical conditions and general elections. We rely on information actually available to policy-makers at the time of...

Whether discretionary fiscal policies in industrialized countries act counter- or pro-cyclically and whether their reaction is symmetric or asymmetric over the cycle are still largely unsettled questions. This uncertainty perdures when attention is restricted to euro-area countries, where these...

With a unique data set summarizing the quality of rules-based fiscal governance in EU member states, we show that stronger fiscal rules in euro area members reduce sovereign risk premia, in particular in times of market stress. To do so, we develop a model of sovereign spreads that are...

The paper looks at the determinants of fiscal adjustments as reflected in the primary surplus of countries. Our conjecture is that governments will usually find it more attractive to pursue fiscal adjustments in a situation of relatively high growth, but based on a simple stylized model of...