This paper examines the causal effects of shifts in international food commodity prices on euro area inflation dynamics …%-30% of inflation volatility. In addition, large autonomous swings in international food prices contributed significantly to … the twin puzzle of missing disinflation and missing inflation in the era after the Great Recession. Specifically, without …

movements do not have an impact on inflation, as aggregate rules of thumb mask substantial heterogeneities across countries … deviations of inflation from target, including those relating to exchange rate fluctuations. Moreover, under the effective lower … inflation. …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

contractionary. A country analysis confirms that the negative effects of oil supply and monetary policy shocks on inflation was … inflation and economic activity in all the countries. All in all, our analysis confirms the appropriateness of the ECB asset …Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below …

estimating the effect on overall headline inflation, we examine effects on its 12 main sub-indices and further sub-categories of … food price inflation. This allows us to disentangle differences in the direction and strength of price effects across … consumption categories. Our results suggest significant positive effects of natural disasters on overall headline inflation, with …

public finances. We show that when the ECB misses its inflation target this has large heterogeneous fiscal consequences for … missing their inflation targets. They are also sizeable …

Surprisingly it did not, or at least not directly. Using micro data on consumer prices and sectoral inflation rates … has altered the behaviour of retail price setting and/or inflation dynamics. We find no evidence that anything has changed … earlier patterns. On the contrary, we do find evidence of a decline in the persistence of the inflation process in the mid …

Under inflation targeting inflation exhibits negative serial correlation in the United Kingdom, and little or no …, inflation appears to be (nearly) purely forward-looking, so that no mechanism introducing backward-looking components is … necessary to fit the data. These results question the notion that the intrinsic inflation persistence found in post-WWII U …

analysis for the US over the same sample. It turns out that US real time estimates are much more correlated with final … estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …