imposing rational expectations, direct measures, ie OECD forecasts, are used to proxy economic agents' inflation expectations … Classical and Hybrid Phillips curves. We interpret our results as indicating that the European inflation process is not purely … forwardlooking, so that inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to new information. Consequently, even allowing for possible non …

The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost … growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation …. There is, however, some support in favour of the (reduced form) AWM inflation equation. It is the only model that …

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …

economic agents' inflation expectations. Real marginal costs are proxied by three different measures. The results suggest that … OECD inflation forecasts perform relatively well as a proxy for inflation expectations in the euro area, since under this … approach the European inflation process can be modeled using the forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve. However …

This paper examines euro area inflation dynamics by estimating open economy New Keynesian Phillips curves based on the … survey data and OECD inflation forecasts are used to proxy inflation expectations. The results suggest that, compared with a … closed economy New Keynesian Phillips curve, euro area inflation dynamics are better captured by the open economy …

in principle less restrictive approach is applied to operationalising expectations. Direct measures of inflation … expectations, i.e. OECD forecasts, are used as empirical proxies of economic agents' inflation expectations. The main interest is … in the euro area as a whole, although potential heterogeneity of inflation dynamics is also examined across eleven EMU …

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a … empirical question whether the group of monetary variables is relevant for forecasting euro area inflation. In our application …, we consider about thirty monetary and non-monetary indicators for inflation. Using this data, BMA provides inclusion …

The paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation … and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors …) overperform other measures over the monetary policy horizon and are leading indicators of headline inflation. Trimmed means …

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a … empirical question whether the group of monetary variables is relevant for forecasting euro area inflation. In our application …, we consider about thirty monetary and non-monetary indicators for inflation. Using this data, BMA provides inclusion …