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Are Euro-Area expectations about recession phases effective to anticipate consequences of economic crises?
Rubilar-González, Marco; Pino, Gabriel - In: SERIEs : Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 9 (2018) 2, pp. 141-161
tool to identify and characterize expectations of business cycle phases for Germany, Spain, the Euro Area, and the European … more sensitive to international disturbances. Our results also reveal a lack of synchronization of the expectations across …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011865218
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The impact of political announcements on expectations concerning the starting date of the EMU : a microeconometric approach to the detection of event-dependent answering patterns i...
Kaiser, Ulrich - 1997
This paper examines German business survey data to uncover the influence of political news on expectations concerning …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011621979
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The Phillips curve in the euro area : new evidence using country-level data
Wellmann, Susanne - 2023
to unemployment over the last decade is a result of firmly anchored inflation expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014284063
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The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area : NMCM - with boundedly rational learning expectations
Dieppe, Alistair; Pandiella, Alberto González; Hall, … - 2011
Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more … their expectations. A standard assumption is that agents form expectations by using the correctly specified reduced form … included. Therefore, agents base expectations on a misspecified MSV solution. In contrast, we assume agents know the deep …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008935830
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The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the Euro Area : NMCM - With Boundedly Rational Learning Expectations
Dieppe, Alistair - 2011
Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more … their expectations. A standard assumption is that agents form expectations by using the correctly specified reduced form … included. Therefore, agents base expectations on a misspecified MSV solution. In contrast, we assume agents know the deep …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128293
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The tress of having a single monetary policy in Europe
Sturm, Jan-Egbert (contributor);  … - 2008
This paper estimates forward-looking Taylor rules for the euro area. Using the asymmetries in inflation and cyclical output developments across countries, we investigate the adequacy of the single monetary policy for each of the EuropeanMonetary Union (EMU) member countries. Notable differences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003767708
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Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy
Ferrara, Laurent - 2010
In addition to quantitative assessment of economic growth using econometric models, business cycle analyses have been proved to be helpful to practitioners in order to assess current economic conditions or to anticipate upcoming fluctuations. In this paper, we focus on the acceleration cycle in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138813
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Green Shoots in the Euro Area : A Real Time Measure
Camacho, Maximo - 2010
We show that an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the specificities of the day to day monitoring of economic developments such as ragged edges, mixed frequencies and data revisions is a good tool to forecast the Euro area recessions in real time. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013140030
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Short-Term GDP Forecasting with a Mixed Frequency Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility
Marcellino, Massimiliano Giuseppe - 2014
In this paper we develop a mixed frequency dynamic factor model featuring stochastic shifts in the volatility of both the latent common factor and the idiosyncratic components. We take a Bayesian perspective and derive a Gibbs sampler to obtain the posterior density of the model parameters. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064512
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Meeting Our D€Stiny. A Disaggregated Euro Area Short Term Indicator Model to Forecast GDP (Y) Growth
Burriel, Pablo - 2013
In this paper we propose a new real-time forecasting model for euro area GDP growth, D€STINY, which attempts to bridge the existing gap in the literature between large- and small-scale dynamic factor models. By adopting a disaggregated modelling approach, D€STINY uses most of the information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071333