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tool to identify and characterize expectations of business cycle phases for Germany, Spain, the Euro Area, and the European … more sensitive to international disturbances. Our results also reveal a lack of synchronization of the expectations across …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011865218
the Consumer Expectations Survey in Europe to directly infer it from the Euler equation. Our final estimates range between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015152737
economic expectations and forecasts, but also valuable insights on key topical issues and on economic risks and uncertainties …) underlying SPF expectations and an analysis and assessment of measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Technical assumptions are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015156735
This paper examines German business survey data to uncover the influence of political news on expectations concerning …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011621979
to unemployment over the last decade is a result of firmly anchored inflation expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014284063
Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more … their expectations. A standard assumption is that agents form expectations by using the correctly specified reduced form … included. Therefore, agents base expectations on a misspecified MSV solution. In contrast, we assume agents know the deep …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128293
Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more … their expectations. A standard assumption is that agents form expectations by using the correctly specified reduced form … included. Therefore, agents base expectations on a misspecified MSV solution. In contrast, we assume agents know the deep …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008935830
The introduction of Euro currency was a game-changing event intended to induce convergence of
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010860516
After the accession of newly members in the European Union in 2004 and 2007 these countries are expected to adopt the common currency: Euro. The nominal convergence must be achieved until then as the Maastricht treaty implies but in order to be an Optimum-Currency-Area (OCA) these countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010617417
We propose a model to compute short-term forecasts of the Euro area GDP growth in real-time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time data set that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. In this context,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014218452