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Recent empirical studies have found evidence of unstable long run money demand functions if recent data are used. If the link between money balances and the macroeconomy is fragile, the rationale of monetary aggregates in the ECB strategy has to be doubted. In contrast we present a "stable''...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011518878
In this paper we present an empirically stable money demand model for Euro area M3. We show that housing wealth is an important explanatory variable of long-run money demand that captures the trending behaviour of M3 velocity, in particular its shift in the first half of this decade. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155103
This paper investigates possible non-linearities in the dynamics of the euro area demand for the narrow aggregate M1. A long-run money demand relationship is firstly estimated over a sample period covering the last three decades. While the parameters of the relationship are jointly stable, there...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317661
Money is one of the main elements ("pillars") on which the policy strategy of the European Central Bank is based, and such a role requires that money has a stable relationship with the Euro area price level. Typically, the stability of this relation is tested in the context of the so called...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014159218
The paper considers a Bayesian approach to the cointegrated VAR model with a uniform prior on the cointegration space …. Building on earlier work by Villani (2005b), where the posterior probability of the cointegration rank can be calculated … the marginal likelihood identity is used for calculating these probabilities, a point estimator of the cointegration space …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317369
Money growth in the euro area has exceeded its target since 2001. Likewise, recent empirical studies did not find evidence in favour of a stable long run money demand function. The equation appears to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are used. If the link between money balances and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011384239
The concept of integrated stochastic processes is widely used in empirical macroeconomics; and cointegration analysis … considerable empirical method for extracting information from monetary aggregates for monetary policy purposes. -- cointegration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009620770
The concept of integrated stochastic processes is widely used in empirical macroeconomics; and cointegration analysis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012951750
of money demand. This presumption is explored by means of a cointegration analysis. To separate income from wealth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011518893
A remarkable development seen in recent years is the pronounced decline in euro area M1 velocity vis-a-vis a moderate decline in short-term interest rates, which represent the most natural opportunity cost for M1. This paper endeavous to estimate a demand function for euro area M1, in particular...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320294