We estimate a three-region (DE-REA-RoW) structural macroeconomic model, and we provide a counterfactual on how nominal exchange rate flexibility would have affected the German trade balance (TB) by simulating the shocks of the estimated model under a counterfactual flexible exchange rate regime....

This paper aims to analyze the impact of external factors, such as the nominal effective exchange rate, foreign demand and the terms of trade, on the euro area real economy. In particular, the paper estimates the quantitative impact that changes in these factors have on net trade, real GDP and...

Despite performing very positively on some key macroeconomic indicators in recent years, the German economy is in grave disequilibrium if the high current account surplus is included in the analysis. The paper scrutinises the evolution of Germany's external surplus since the inception of the...