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Inflation in the euro area : factors mostly have only a temporary effect, but risk of prolonged elevated inflation remains
Bernoth, Kerstin; Ider, Gökhan - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 11 (2021) 41/42, pp. 315-323
Headline inflation in the euro area jumped to more than three percent in the summer after years of relatively low inflation rates well below the target of close to but below two percent set by the ECB until July 2021. One of the main reasons for the rise in inflation is the increase in energy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012667065
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The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis
Schupp, Fabian - 2020
I propose a new term structure model for euro area real and nominal interest rates which explicitly incorporates a time-varying lower bound for nominal interest rates. Results suggest that the lower bound is of importance in structural analyses implying time-varying impulse responses of yield...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012222610
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Disentangling the effects of multidimensional monetary policy on inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area
Martínez-Hernández, Catalina - 2020 - This version: October 30, 2020
The European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a mixture of conventional and unconventional tools in order to achieve its mandate of price stability in the current low-inflation, low-interest-rate scenario. This paper contributes to the existing literature by providing a taxonomy of the ECB’s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012305860
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The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis
Schupp, Fabian - 2020
I propose a new term structure model for euro area real and nominal interest rates which explicitly incorporates a time-varying lower bound for nominal interest rates. Results suggest that the lower bound is of importance in structural analyses implying time-varying impulse responses of yield...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012299079
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A sustainable development of inflation in euro area requires continuously improving labor market
Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 8 (2018) 43, pp. 429-437
In the past five years, the inflation in the euro area has been well below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) aimed inflation rate of close to but below two percent for achieving its objective of price stabilization in the medium term. The present analysis shows that expectations of low...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011917388
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Inflation anchoring in the euro area
Speck, Christian - 2016
Did the decline in inflation rates from 2012 to 2015 and the low levels of market-based inflation expectations lead to de-anchored inflation dynamics in the euro area? This paper is the first time-varying event study to investigate the reaction of inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates - a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456474
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Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve
Oinonen, Sami; Vilmi, Lauri - 2021
This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation dynamics. Its forecasting performance is also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622377
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Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the euro area
Aßhoff, Sina; Belke, Ansgar; Osowski, Thomas - 2020
Auswirkungen der unkonventionellen Geldpolitik ist nicht trivial, da standardisierte empirische Instrumente wie die VAR … Problem zu lösen. Wir stellen fest, dass die unkonventionelle Geldpolitik zwar kurzfristig zu einem Anstieg der … beigetragen hat. Dennoch deuten sie auf einen durch die unkonventionelle Geldpolitik ausgelösten Anstieg des mittelfristigen …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012149519
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Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations : a regime-switching framework for the euro area
Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric; Hubrich, Kirstin - 2017
We investigate whether the response of the macro-economy to oil price shocks undergoes episodic changes. Employing a regime-switching vector autoregressive model we identify two regimes that are characterized by qualitatively different patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011771984
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Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe : cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations
Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Holtemöller, Oliver - 2017
We investigate drivers of Euro area inflation dynamics using a panel of regional Phillips curves and identify long-run inflation expectations by exploiting the crosssectional dimension of the data. Our approach simultaneously allows for the inclusion of country-specific inflation and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011764910