We build a stylised 12-country model of the euro area and use it to analyse why differences in national inflation and … growth rates arise within the European monetary union. We find that inflation persistence is a key potential explanatory … mechanism across countries, count less. We also look at how a monetary policy geared to area-wide average inflation affects …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price … shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the … same direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a …

Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below … by means of sign restrictions, to inflation and economic activity. Shocks to oil supply do not tell the full story about … contractionary. A country analysis confirms that the negative effects of oil supply and monetary policy shocks on inflation was …

inflation. Through a novel consumption deflator decomposition, we show that import prices account for 40 percent of the average … convergence of inflation to target over the next two years. Monetary policy will thus need to remain restrictive to anchor …

Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below … by means of sign restrictions, to inflation and economic activity. Shocks to oil supply do not tell the full story about … contractionary. A country analysis confirms that the negative effects of oil supply and monetary policy shocks on inflation was …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …

We assess whether euro area inflation expectations, as measured by break-even inflation rates (BEIRs), have remained … illiquidity or demand-supply imbalances, but not reflecting genuine inflation expectations and inflation risk premia. We estimate … a bivariate VAR with short-term and long-term BEIRs, allowing for measurement noise in both. Anchoring of inflation …

This paper provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the role of discretionary fiscal policy for inflation … is difficult to find robust evidence of the fiscal policy stance or impulse impacting directly on inflation differentials …. We do find, however, support for an indirect effect of discretionary fiscal policy on inflation differentials working …