Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...

Forecast models with large cross-sections are often subject to overparameterization leading to unstable parameter estimates and hence inaccurate forecasts. Recent articles suggest that a large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with sufficient prior information dominates competing approaches....

In einer jüngst veröffentlichten Studie im Auftrag der Bertelsmann-Stiftung gelangt die Prognos AG zu dem Fazit, dass Deutschland erhebliche Vorteile durch den Euro hat. Um dies zu zeigen, prognostizieren die Autoren der Studie die Entwicklung des deutschen Bruttoinlandsprodukts in den Jahren...

I use a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the impact of monetary and technology shocks on the euro area stock market in 1987-2005. I find an important role for technology shocks, but not monetary shocks, in explaining variations in real stock prices. The identification...