On 4 March 2011, SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum and the National Bank of Poland jointly organised a conference on the theme of: "Monetary Policy after the Crisis". Following a call for papers with a large number of submissions, the scientific committee selected 9 papers, which...

This working paper offers some considerations on the monetary policy framework of the European Central Bank. The trade-offs arising from adopting a point target configuration over a range target one are assessed in terms of their flexibility vs. inflation anchoring properties. This layout is...

We assess whether euro area inflation expectations, as measured by break-even inflation rates (BEIRs), have remained anchored during the financial crisis. Since autumn 2008, the volatility of BEIRs has increased considerably. We treat observed BEIRs as a sum of `genuine BEIRs' and additional...

This paper studies the formation of inflation expectations in the euro area. We first analyse the forecast accuracy of ECB inflation projections relative to private sector forecasts. Then, using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF), we estimate a general model integrating two...

We tackle two questions in this paper: In the sovereign debt crisis, what moves the euro area inflation outlook and has the firm anchoring of medium to long-term inflation expectations been touched? Deriving densities from a new data set on options on the euro area harmonized index of consumer...

We tackle two questions in this paper: In the sovereign debt crisis, what moves the euro area inflation outlook and has the firm anchoring of medium to long-term inflation expectations been touched? Deriving densities from a new data set on options on the euro area harmonized index of consumer...

Headline inflation in the euro area jumped to more than three percent in the summer after years of relatively low inflation rates well below the target of close to but below two percent set by the ECB until July 2021. One of the main reasons for the rise in inflation is the increase in energy...

Well-anchored inflation expectations are a key factor for achieving economic stability. This paper provides new empirical results on the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area. In line with earlier evidence, we find that euro area inflation expectations have been anchored...

This paper employs stochastic simulations of the New Area-Wide Model - microfounded open-economy model developed at the ECB - to investigate the consequences of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates for the evolution of risks to price stability in the euro area during the recent...

Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protractedperiod of low (and below-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened theiranchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news, this paper expandsexisting results in...