use ordered probit models based on the Taylor rule which we estimate using statements by ECB officials as well as … macroeconomic variables. Statements by ECB officials on the main refinancing rate and future inflation are significantly related to … ECB decisions. However, an out-of-sample evaluation shows that communication-based models do not outperform models based …

distribution in the European Central Bank (ECB) council. We show that, in a model where labor unions internalize the inflationary … on unemployment and voting rights in the ECB council seems broadly in line with this idea. We also point to possible … policy implications for EMU enlargement and ECB restructuring. …