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Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts : an empirical comparison for the G7
Dovern, Jonas; Weisser, Johannes - 2009
Forecasting ; Rationality ; Survey Data ; Fixed-Event Forecasts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003906039
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Bottom-up or direct? forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment
Heinisch, Katja; Scheufele, Rolf - 2013
forces of the forecast and hence enables the interpretability of the forecast outcome. -- Contemporaneous aggregation … ; nowcasting ; leading indicators ; MIDAS ; forecast combination ; forecast evaluation … Aggregation ; Nowcasting ; Frühindikatoren ; MIDAS ; Prognosekombination ; Prognoseevaluation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009735835
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Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts : an empirical comparison for the G7
Dovern, Jonas; Weisser, Johannes - In: International journal of forecasting 27 (2011) 2, pp. 452-465
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009247475
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Accuracy and Properties of German Business Cycle Forecasts
Osterloh, Steffen - 2013
In this paper the accuracy of a wide range of German business cycle forecasters is assessed for the past 10 years. For this purpose, a data set is used comprising forecasts published on a monthly basis by Consensus Economics. The application of several descriptive as well as statistical measures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012711556
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German forecasters' narratives : how informative are German business cycle forecast reports?
Müller, Karsten - 2020
dictionary methods and text regression methods, using recursive estimation. Next, the paper analyses the different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293448
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Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts : evidence from a survey among professional forecasters
Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Waldhof, Gabi - 2017
The paper reports results of a survey among active forecasters of the German business cycle. Relying on 82 respondents from 37 different institutions, we investigate what models and theories forecasters subscribe to and find that they are pronounced conservative in the sense, that they...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011685558
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Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts : evidence from a survey among professional forecasters
Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Waldhof, Gaby - 2017
The paper reports results of a survey among active forecasters of the German business cycle. Relying on 82 respondents from 37 different institutions, we investigate what models and theories forecasters subscribe to and find that they are pronounced conservative in the sense, that they...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159601
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The Riskbank's forecasting performance
Andersson, Michael F. (contributor);  … - 2007
one forecast occasion to another) of the published forecasts. -- Judgements ; Forecast Evaluation ; Central Bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003591102
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Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges : an interval data approach
Fischer, Henning; García-Bárzana, Marta; Tillmann, Peter - 2012 - This version: October 23, 2012
compare the midpoint of the ranges with the realized outcome. This paper proposes a new approach to forecast evaluation that … relevant for explaining future inflation than information embodied in the midpoint. -- Forecast evaluation ; interval data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009534105
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The forecasting performance of an estimated medium run model
Kitlinski, Tobias; Schmidt, Torsten - 2011
using Bayesian estimation methods. As forecasting benchmarks we take the Smets-Wouters model (2007) and a VAR model. The … evaluation of the forecast errors shows that the Medium-Term model outperforms the Smets-Wouters model with respect to some key …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580996