evaluates the performance of the models. The probit model with the industrial production index and the realized volatility as …

This study provides analytical insight on modelling macroeconomic and oil price volatility in Nigeria. Mainly, the … GARCH - M); and oil price is a major source of macroeconomic volatility in Nigeria. By implication, the Nigerian economy is … vulnerable to both internal shocks (interest rate volatility, real GDP volatility) and external shocks (exchange rate volatility …

policy choices do not matter for per capita economic growth. However, they do matter for output volatility and the medium …-term level of inflation. Greater monetary independence is associated with lower output volatility while greater exchange rate … stability implies greater output volatility, which can be mitigated if a country holds international reserves (IR) at a higher …