Foreign exchange expectations, overconfidence, central banks' foreign exchange interventions, financial development, risk attitudes. - Wechselkurserwartungen, Selbstüberschätzung, Wechselkursinterventionen von Zentralbanken, Entwicklung von Finanzmärkten, Risikoeinstellung

The high-frequency analysis of foreign exchange dynamics is helpful in order to better identify the impact of central bank interventions. Evidence robustly shows that interventions do indeed move the exchange rate level in the desired direction. Interventions increase volatility in the short run...

This paper examines heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations. Whereas agents' heterogeneity is key in modern exchange rate models, evidence on determinants of heterogeneity is weak so far. Our sample, covering expectations from about 300 forecasters over 15 years, shows remarkable time...