Baviera, Roberto; Pasquini, Michele; Serva, Maurizio; … - In: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 312 (2002) 3, pp. 565-576
A quantitative check of efficiency in US dollar/Deutsche mark exchange rates is developed using high-frequency (tick by tick) data. The antipersistent Markov behavior of log-price fluctuations of given size implies, in principle, the possibility of a statistical forecast. We introduce and...