Economic theory predicts connections between fluctuations in a country's exchange rate and its real GDP relative to other countries. Past evidence of such connections has been very weak. An examination of periods of large or sustained changes in GDP (rather than small, temporary changes),...

This paper examines the endogenous implementation of capital controls in the context of a fixed exchange rate regime. It is shown that if there exists a non-zero probability that the policymaker's response to a speculative attack on official foreign reserves will be the introduction of controls,...

Economists generally assert that countries sacrifice monetary independence when they peg their exchange rates. At the same time, central bankers frequently assert that pegging an exchange rate does not eliminate the independence of monetary policy. This paper examines the effects of money-supply...