Rational expectations models fail to explain the disconnect between the exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. In line with survey evidence on the behaviour of foreign exchange traders, we introduce model misspecification and learning into a standard monetary model. Agents use simple...

This paper is a step in the direction of a larger research project aimed at determining the long run equilibrium value of the euro/dollar real exchange rate. Given this value, one could then give a precise meaning to the notion of undervaluation or overvaluation of the euro, and calculate its...

Meese and Rogoff (1983) and subsequent studies find that economic fundamentals are apparently not able to explain exchange rate movements, but we argue that this so-called "Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle" arose because researchers such as Meese and Rogoff (1983) did not use the right...

This paper re-investigates the implications of monetary policy rules on changes in exchange rate, in a risk-adjusted, uncovered interest parity model with unrestricted parameters, emphasizing the importance of modeling market expectations of monetary policy. I use consensus forecasts as a proxy...

In this paper, the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model used in a time-series setting is investigated, via its application to the valuation of Chinese renminbi. A classical definition with its generalization is given. The different misalignment results derived from the BEER models...

In this paper, we assess the equilibrium value of the Mauritian rupee in 2006-07 and over the medium run using two structural models. First, we derive a current account-based measure of the exchange rate equilibrium using the macroeconomic balance approach. Second, we estimate a reduced-form...

In this paper we evaluate the predictive power of the three most popular equilibrium exchange rate concepts: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and the Macroeconomic Balance (MB) approach. We show that there is a clear trade-off between storytelling and...

This paper deals with hysteresis in the desired equilibrium exchange rate (DEER) arising from misalignment. When the actual real exchange rate departs from its DEER value current account realizations--and consequently debt service obligations--will differ from those assumed in the initial DEER...

We empirically test the validity of four popular monetary exchange rate models under five alternative inflation expectation approximations using the NOK/USD exchange rate. The selection of Norway seems appropriate as it is a small open economy that does not participate in most economic or...

We analyze, in a unified theoretical framework, the two main models for equilibrium exchange rate, namely, the BEER and the FEER approaches. In order to understand the interactions between them, we study in detail the temporal links between these two measures. Our results show that, in average,...