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Agents have foresight when they receive information about a random process above and beyond the information contained in its current and past history. In this paper, we propose an information-theoretic measure of the quantity of foresight in an information structure, and show how to separate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012606997
substantially. We document this fact by comparing an easy-to-grasp expectations-based policy, unconventional fiscal policy, with a … consumption via managing inflation expectations based on the Euler equation. Unconventional fiscal policy uses trivial … announcements of future consumer-price increases to boost inflation expectations and consumption expenditure on impact. Instead …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057290
unconventional policies that aim to increase households' spending directly through managing their expectations. We first show … theoretically and empirically that higher in ation expectations increase households' consumption. We then design a difference … demand via managing expectations. Whereas unconventional fiscal policy increases households' expectations and spending …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012490917
How do households adjust their spending behavior in response to changes in home price expectations? We conduct a field … experiment with a sample of Americans that links survey data on home price expectations to actual spending behaviour as measured … in a rich home-scanner dataset. In the experiment we exogenously vary households' home price expectations by providing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014284713
should intervene in the business cycle. Following Ramey (2011b), we include expectations held by consumers and firms into the … findings also underscore the need to account for expectations, as failing to do so leads to significant misinterpretation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011525541
According to the expectations channel, a fiscal consolidation may give rise to less contractionary, or even … design a laboratory experiment to study the conditions under which the expectations channel operates. Our results indicate … consumption, which supports the expectations channel. We also find that the expectations channel is more pronounced if the fiscal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010509128
exceeds the growth rate. This is done by considering an economy in steady state where all agents hold "Barro expectations … unchanged. In this scenario, a change in the mode of taxation affects the present value of disposable income in the private … sector. This violates their Barro expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009490196
This note identifies a severe mistake in my article “Unexpected Consequences of Ricardian Expectations” that appeard in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010350222
government spending, a change in taxation does not alter the set of feasible life-time consumption plans of the households and … the very expectations the thesis proposes ("Ricardian expectations"), it is shown that these expectations are disappointed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009656223
government spending, a change in taxation does not alter the set of feasible life-time consumption plans of the households and … the very expectations the thesis proposes ("Ricardian expectations"), it is shown that these expectations are invalidated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010441506