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Using belief elicitation, the paper investigates the formation and the evolution of beliefs in a signalling game in which a common prior on Sender's type is not induced. Beliefs are elicited about the type of the Sender and about the strategies of the players. The experimental subjects often...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009535526
. Insofar as individuals typically construct images of high quality, why do they sometimes do the opposite? The standard …. And of course, some people appear to report quality above what they believe to be true. We develop a model of strategic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014047090
Why do individuals interpret the same information differently? We propose that individuals follow Bayes' Rule when forming posteriors with one exception: when assessing the credibility of experts, they "double-dip" the data and use already-updated beliefs instead of their priors. Our proposed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011756731
This chapter provides a survey of the recent work on learning in the context of macroeconomics. Learning has several … roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts … as a selection device in models with multiple REE (rational expectations equilibria). Third, the learning dynamics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024243
This survey discusses behavioral and experimental macroeconomics emphasizing a complex systems perspective. The economy consists of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents who do not fully understand their complex environment and use simple decision heuristics. Central to our survey is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011929804
This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of … JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425
demand. The former learning effect, combined with the latter real-options effect, adversely affect firms' entry decisions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258487
agents employ the same recursive learning rule to update beliefs but are characterized by different memory parameters. The … peculiarity of the learning mechanism is that the learning rate is not vanishing in the limit. Differently from what is obtained … in the case of a vanishing learning step, i.e., the stability conditions in the heterogeneous agents case are those of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014173987
policy rules: the assumed manner of expectations formation. Following a considerable literature on learning, it is assumed … learning dynamics converge to the equilibrium predicted by rational expectations equilibrium analysis. This question is … any of a broad class of specifications of the learning dynamics. This suggests the Taylor rule to be desirable from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013032843
. In addition, stock prices are partly driven by noise, and therefore negatively predict returns on announcement days when … noise is revealed and the market corrects itself …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012846330