Beliefs about collective outcomes, such as economic growth or firm profitability, play an important role in many … contexts. We study biases in the formation of such beliefs. Specifically, we explore whether over-optimism and self …-serving biases in information processing—documented for beliefs about individual outcomes—affect beliefs about collective outcomes …

Beliefs about collective outcomes, such as economic growth or firm profitability, play an important role in many … contexts. We study biases in the formation of such beliefs. Specifically, we explore whether over-optimism and self …-serving biases in information processing-documented for beliefs about individual outcomes-affect beliefs about collective outcomes …

' successes. In our model, both the agent's information and his beliefs are multi-dimensional, allowing us to study interactions … settings. Third, the agent's beliefs are subject to "bias substitution," whereby forces that decrease his bias regarding one … multi-dimensional beliefs possible, we develop tools for studying learning under high-dimensional misspecified models. …