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A note on the representative adaptive learning algorithm
Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2014
best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932
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Bubble formation and (in)efficient markets in learning-to-forecast and -optimise experiments
Te, Bao; Hommes, Cars H.; Makarewicz, Tomasz - 2015
This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects (1) submit a price forecast only, (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find deviation of the market price from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333057
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Managing Expectations
Lindstädt, René; Staton, Jeffrey K. - 2010
Followers of law, politics and business commonly relate stories of individuals who appear to predict an expected self-performance level below what they believe likely. Candidates, attorneys and firms sometimes seem to under-predict their own capacities. Insofar as individuals typically construct...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014047090
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Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state
Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - 2001
We examine the nonlinear model Xt = Et F(xt+1) . Markov SSEs exist near an indeterminate steady state, X = F(X), provided F´(X)> 1. We show that there exist Markov SSEs that are E-stable, and therefore locally stable under adaptive learning, if F´(X)< -1.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398793
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Expectational stability of resonant frequency sunspot equilibria
Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - 2001
We consider the stability under adaptive learning of the complete set of solutions to the model when . In addition to the fundamentals solution, the literature describes both finite-state Markov sunspot solutions, satisfying a resonant frequency condition, and autoregressive solutions depending...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398912
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Personal experiences and expectations about aggregate outcomes
Kuchler, Theresa; Zafar, Basit - 2015
We use novel survey data to estimate how personal experiences affect household expectations about aggregate economic outcomes in housing and labor markets. We exploit variation in locally experienced house prices to show that individuals systematically extrapolate from recent locally experienced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376179
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Interest rate rules and macroeconomic stability under heterogeneous expectations
Anufriev, Mikhail; Assenza, Tiziana; Hommes, Cars H.; … - 2009
and Hommes (1997). The stabilizing effect of different monetary policies depends on the ecology of forecasting rules, on … agents' sensitivity to differences in forecasting performance and on how aggressively the monetary authority sets the nominal …, expectations rule is part of the ecology of forecasting strategies. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011378358
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Reflexivity, expectations feedback and almost self-fulfilling equilibria : economic theory, empirical evidence and laboratory experiments
Hommes, Cars H. - 2013
We discuss recent work on bounded rationality and learning in relation to Soros' principle of reflexivity and stress the empirical importance of non-rational, almost self-fulfilling equilibria in positive feedback systems. As an empirical example, we discuss a behavioral asset pricing model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010227330
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Animal spirits, heterogeneous expectations and the emergence of booms and busts
Assenza, Tiziana; Brock, William A.; Hommes, Cars H. - 2013
We introduce a simple equilibrium model of a market for loans, where house- holds lend to firms based on heterogeneous expectations about their loan default probability. Agents select among heterogeneous expectation rules, based upon their relative performance. A small fraction of pessimistic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010227354
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Behaviorally rational expectations and almost self-fulfilling equilibria
Hommes, Cars H. - 2013
Rational expectations assumes perfect, model consistency between beliefs and market realizations. Here we discuss behaviorally rational expectations, characterized by an observable, parsimonious and intuitive form of consistency between beliefs and realizations. We discuss three case-studies....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010227365