While recent research shows that there is mounting pressure on firms to achieve earnings expectations of securities analysts, firms are far from being passive conformers; many firms proactively manage such pressure, particularly with earnings management tools. Yet why does the pressure to meet...

Firms, insurance companies, pension funds, and broadly speaking the international community focus already their engagement activities on environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues since it can create long-term shareholder value, by determining the future performance of markets. Indeed ESG...

Prior research fails to explain why theoretically predicted magnitudes of earnings response coefficients (ERCs) and price-to-earnings ratios (P/E ratios) differ from their empirical counterparts. Therefore, we (re)investigate the associations between earnings innovations, persistence of expected...

Expectations regarding the economic development might be correlated due to various reasons: because individuals use the same public information and similar evaluation methods, and because of social learning or herding amongst peers. We analyse to what extent expectations are driven by herd...

Expectations affect economic decisions, and inaccurate expectations are costly. Expectations can be wrong due to either bias (systematic mistakes) or noise (unsystematic mistakes). We develop a framework for quantifying the level of noise in survey expectations. The method is based on the...

Attention to the economy plays a key role in canonical macro models, yet its empirical properties are not well understood. We collect novel measures of attention to the economy based on open-ended survey questions. Our measures are included in tailored panel surveys of German firms and...

We survey a representative sample of US households to study how exposure to the COVID-19 stock market crash affects expectations and planned behavior. Wealth shocks are associated with upward adjustments of expectations about retirement age, desired working hours, and household debt, but have...

We survey a representative sample of US households to study how exposure to the COVID-19 stock market crash affects expectations and planned behavior. Wealth shocks are associated with upward adjustments of expectations about retirement age, desired working hours, and household debt, but have...

Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations...

This paper analyzes how the formation of expectations constrains monetary and fiscal policy design. Economic agents have imperfect knowledge about the economic environment and the policy regime in place. Households and firms learn about the policy regime using historical data. Regime uncertainty...