’s launch in January 1999. In summary, the results show that the SPF responses are quite timely and that the forecasts are based … is thus very important to consider the heterogeneity of the SPF forecasts when analysing and interpreting the results of …

unconventional policies that aim to increase households' spending directly through managing their expectations. We first show … theoretically and empirically that higher in ation expectations increase households' consumption. We then design a difference … demand via managing expectations. Whereas unconventional fiscal policy increases households' expectations and spending …

inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned through the build-up of evidence, agents are assumed to switch to the rational … expectation. Thus, rational expectations is a special case of inferential expectations if agents are unconcerned about mistakenly … an individual choice experiment showing preliminary support for inferential expectations in comparison to either rational …

We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a novel news … of households' stated inflation expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model setting, augmented with a simple …, robust and new evidence highlighting the role of the media for understanding inflation expectations and information …

We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on … inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the … best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …

The aim of this paper is to simulate profit expectations as an emergent property using an agent based model. The paper … builds upon adaptive expectations, interactive expectations and small world networks, combining them into a single adaptive … interactive profit expectations model (AIE). Understanding the diffusion of interactive expectations is aided by using a network …