and inflation indexation, that are typically needed in monetary models with rational expectations to match the persistence … replaces rational expectations, the estimated degrees of habits and indexation drop near zero. This ?nding suggests that … persistence arises in the model economy mainly from expectations and learning. The posterior model probabilities show that the …

expectations to match the inertia in the data and to improve the fit of estimated New Keynesian Phillips curves. The empirical … results show that when learning replaces the assumption of fully rational expectations, structural sources of persistence in …

The notion of optimized rational behavior in the formation of expectations is used in this note to study the dynamics …

Biased longevity expectations will lead to suboptimal decisions regarding saving, retirement, annuitization and health …, with consequences for wellbeing in old age. Systematic differences in the accuracy of longevity expectations may partly … veracity of expectations are due to the less educated and cognitively able responding less to changes in objective mortality …

Previous experimental investigations have shown that expectations are not perfectly rational due to bias. Traditional … adaptive models, however, in many cases do not perfectly describe the formation of expectations either. This paper makes two … contributions to the experimental literature on the formation of expectations: First, we investigate whether subjects who have more …

As evidence is accumulating that subjective expectations influence behavior and that these expectations are sometimes … biased, it becomes policy-relevant to know how to influence individuals' expectations. Information in the media is likely to … real-life expectations formation process. For this purpose, an exceptional Dutch dataset on monthly expectations regarding …

This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast … forecasts. It turns out that the availability of historical data has a dominant impact on expectations and wipes out the …

This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts …

quarterly Brent crude oil price forecasts. We examine the expectations building mechanism by referring to the processing of …