This paper studies the problem of optimal reinsurance contract design. We let the insurer use dual utility, and the premium is an extended Wang's premiumprinciple. The novel contribution is that we allow for heterogeneity in the beliefs regarding the underlying probability distribution. We...

Bayes' statistical rule remains the status quo for modeling belief updating in both normative and descriptive models of behavior under uncertainty. Recent research has questioned the use of Bayes' rule in descriptive models of behavior, presenting evidence that people overweight 'good news'...

Humans are notoriously bad at understanding probabilities, exhibiting a host of biases and distortions that are context dependent. This has serious consequences on how we assess risks and make decisions. Several theories have been developed to replace the normative rational expectation theory at...