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We propose and axiomatically characterize dynamically consistent update rules for decision making under ambiguity … of preferences over acts, to be able to reconcile typical behavior in the face of ambiguity (as exemplified by Ellsberg …’s paradox) with dynamic consistency for all non-null events. Updating takes the form of applying Bayes’ rule to subsets of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011702323
equivalent consistency under updating characterise a family of capacities, called Genralised Neo-Additive Capacities (GNAC). This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003893438
Observed individual behavior in the presence of ambiguity is characterized by insufficient responsiveness to changes in … subjective likelihoods. Such likelihood insensitivity under ambiguity is integral to theoretical models and predictive of … and determining factors. This paper investigates the role of beliefs in the form of ambiguity perception - the extent to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013163191
The α-MEU model and the smooth ambiguity model are two popular models in decision making under ambiguity. However, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422419
This paper develops a belief update rule under ambiguity, motivated by the maxim: in the face of new information …, Maximum Likelihood) are special cases, but avoids the problems that these rules have with updating on complete ignorance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012259555
This paper analyzes dynamic choice for ambiguity-sensitive decision makers. It demonstrates that unambiguous behavioral … decision models and updating rules, and delivers unambiguous welfare comparisons. As an example, a characterization of prior …-by-prior Bayesian updating and Consistent Planning for arbitrary maxmin-expected utility preferences is presented. The resulting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011691151
between the set of relevant measures, shown by KMS [21] to reflect only perceived ambiguity, and the set of measures (which we … perceived ambiguity. Regarding symmetry assumptions, we show that, under relatively mild conditions, a variety of preference … stringent. Only when it is satisfied may the Bewley set be interpreted as reflecting only perceived ambiguity and not also taste …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011694779
Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014390526
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015070877
regarding the realization likelihood of cash flows, the subjective attitude towards risk, and the attitude towards ambiguity …. While previous literature looks at the total price discount under ambiguity, this paper investigates with laboratory … belief effects, the risk premiums, and the ambiguity premiums from each other. Both methods lead to similar results: Overall …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012485093