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Oil price prediction has usually proved to be an intractable task due to the intrinsic complexity of oil market mechanism. In addition, the recent oil shock and its consequences relaunch the debate on understanding the behaviour underlying the expected oil prices. Combining the dynamic...
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outcomes improve forecast accuracy. However, we present evidence from the lab indicating that single-minded, well …
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asset price trajectories. For example, investors' confidence or panic in relying on observed asset prices to forecast future … behavioral experiments to study investors' forecast formation. We present the design of an experiment consisting of multiple … with discounting. Asset price bubbles and cycles occurred in all three sessions. We fit different models of forecast …
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Biased forecasts, particularly the inadequate adjustment from current values and excessive clustering, are increasingly explained as resulting from anchoring. However, experiments presented in support of this interpretation lack economic conditions, particularly monetary incentives, feedback for...
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