Oil price prediction has usually proved to be an intractable task due to the intrinsic complexity of oil market mechanism. In addition, the recent oil shock and its consequences relaunch the debate on understanding the behaviour underlying the expected oil prices. Combining the dynamic...

In behavioral experiments, carefully choosing the stimuli is critical for success. Recently, several "adaptive" Bayesian methods gained popularity by proposing to optimally select the stimulus in each trial based on the results of the preceding trials. However, current methods are...