A key question in economic research and policymaking is to what extent one can use simplified models. This paper addresses this question by comparing the results of two learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments: one design based on the reduced form of a New-Keynesian model; and one design...

We study how the use of judgment or "add-factors" in forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in a standard self-referential environment....

Using a sample of 20 OECD countries it is shown that the majority of countries decreased the level of intragenerational redistribution in the first pillar of their pension systems, though the evidence is weak in statistical terms. We find strong correlations between changes of the so-called...