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laboratory. Third, nominalist heuristics are incompatible with expected utility theory which excludes the evaluation stage, and … are also incompatible with prospect theory which assumes that, while the evaluation stage can involve systematic mistakes … model and identify what is a mistake, and b) decision makers can maximise. However, contrary to prospect theory, in the …
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We use novel survey data to estimate how personal experiences affect household expectations about aggregate economic outcomes in housing and labor markets. We exploit variation in locally experienced house prices to show that individuals systematically extrapolate from recent locally experienced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011348950
This paper studies a new aspect of firms' expectation formation by asking whether expectations primarily reflect aggregate, industry-wide information (e.g., industry trends) or disaggregate information (e.g., firm-specific information). First, we show that disaggregate information is strongly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011761559
This paper studies a new aspect of firms' expectation formation by asking whether expectations primarily reflect aggregate, industry-wide information (e.g., industry trends) or disaggregate information (e.g., firm-specific information). First, we show that disaggregate information is strongly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011747947
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
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This conference presentation reports on results of an experiment that illustrates costs and benefits of liquidity regulation. These costs and benefits may come out of interbank market equilibrium behavior
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844198