Overconfidence is the most prevalent judgment bias. Several studies find that overconfidence can lead to suboptimal decisions on the part of investors, managers, or politicians. This chapter explains which effects are usually summarized as overconfidence, shows how to measure these effects, and...

We investigate the effect of preannounced market intervention on an asset price as well as participants' welfare in an experimental frame- work where participants have consumption smoothing motives to trade the asset. The results show that, on one hand, the preannounced inter- vention results in...

We consider the classical investment timing problem in a framework where the instantaneous volatility of the project value is itself given by a stochastic process, hence lifting the old question about the investment-uncertainty relationship to a new level. Motivated by the classical cases of...

We show that if the discounted Stock price process is a continuous martingale, then there is a simple relationship linking the variance of the terminal Stock price and the variance of its arithmetic average. We use this to establish a model-independent upper bound for the price of a continuously...

In October 1956, the RAND Corporation established the Logistics Systems Laboratory (LSL) with the goal of using simulation to translate the broad findings of normative microeconomics into detailed, implementable procedures for US Air Force operations. The laboratory was housed in the training...

We construct realistic equity option market simulators based on generative adversarial networks (GANs). We consider recurrent and temporal convolutional architectures, and assess the impact of state compression. Option market simulators are highly relevant because they allow us to extend the...

We present a numerically efficient approach for machine-learning a risk-neutral measure for paths of simulated spot and option prices up to a finite horizon under convex transaction costs and convex trading constraints. This approach can then be used to implement a stochastic implied volatility...

In this paper, we present our research on pricing window barrier options under a hybrid stochastic-local volatility (SLV) model in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Due to the hybrid effect of the local volatility and stochastic volatility components of the model, the SLV model can reproduce the...

In this paper we test empirically with the Nordhaus and Yang (1996) RICE model the core property of the transfer scheme advocated by Germain, Toint and Tulkens (1997). This scheme is designed to sustain full cooperation in a voluntary international environmental agreement by making all countries...