Investors' forecasting behavior affects their trading decisions and the resulting asset prices. It has been shown in … the literature how different, apparently reasonable investor forecasting behaviors can lead to qualitatively different … calibrated forecasting models of all participants were consistent with dynamical systems that exhibit price bubbles and cycles …

financial traders individually learn how to use forecasting and/or trading anchor-and-adjustment heuristics by updating them …

We investigate various statistical methods for forecasting risky choices and identify important decision predictors … three seconds of lottery-information processing. The results of our forecasting experiment show that choice-process data can … effectively be used to forecast risky gambling decisions; however, we find large differences among models’ forecasting …

forecasting risky 50/50 gambling decisions using different types of machine learning algorithms as well as traditional choice … relevant information for predicting gambling decisions, but we do not find forecasting accuracy to be substantially affected by … adding SCPMs to standard choice data. Instead, our results show that forecasting accuracy highly depends on differences in …

information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. -- Forecasting ; aggregation …This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are …